The latest wave of demonstrations against the war around the world has caused me to reflect on the future of US hegemony.
For so long the world has been influenced by the 'American world view'. Whether a developed country or part of the developing world, US economic imperialism has ensured we watch their movies, eat their fast food and drink their soft drinks. As a corollary, these same countries have also been subject to the linguistic and cultural imperialism of the US. But as the Bush administration uses its military muscle in the quest for 'absolute security', what can we expect in the post-Iraq war world? Is the US going to be able to mend its tarnished image? I, for one, cannot think of any occasion in my life time when there has been such opposition to the US and what it stands for. The PR job will be massive and if the Americans can't pull it off, we may just find ourselves in an increasingly tripolar world with China's power on the rise, and a more resolute and confident Europe (minus the UK?) standing toe-to-toe with an isolated, weakened (but still strong) America. The question is, where does a small country like Australia fit in to such a world?
There was a very amusing piece in Guardian Unlimited yesterday. While poking fun at the 'Saddam double' theory, the story, Would the real George Bush please stand down, also draws attention to the skills and capabilities (or lack thereof) of the most powerful man in the world. A far less amusing piece appears in the same publication on the same day entitled McCarthy's ghost. This is very worrying and a sign that the neo-conservatives do, indeed, wield considerable influence within the US political economy.
The Guardian reported yesterday on the Iraqi blogger whose site has become so popular it caused the web servers to crash recently. That this blog (Where is Raed?) is so popular should come as no surprise given the poverty of the journalism on the Iraq war so far.
Last night's Four Corners programme (Operation Persuasion) on ABC television provided a few clues as to why. The 'embedded journalists' are 'in bed ' with the military! In defence of the journos, they appear to have very little choice in the matter, and they only get to see and report on those things that assist in the propaganda war. Interestingly, I learnt from my colleague Joanne Jacobs tonight, that CNN have asked Kevin Sites to stop 'warblogging' because they didn't like the fact that people were going to him for news ahead of CNN (especially as he is employed by CNN!). Who is pulling CNN's strings I wonder? In the meantime, the soap opera that is Fox News goes from bad to worse.
I'm not a betting man, but even if I were, I don't think I could bring myself to have a flutter on the outcome of the Iraq conflict. Bad taste would not appear to present a barrier to some people though.
Most of the mainstream bookies are reported to have shied away from offering wagers on Saddam's fate, but others have had no qualms about providing a service to the punters. At betonsports.com for example, you can place a bet that Saddam will be dead by 30 June, albeit at the rather unattractive odds of 200/1 on. And just in case you were harbouring any doubts that this company is not taking the war seriously, be advised that you can also get odds of 15000/1 that Saddam will join the Backstreet Boys and tour with Elton John.
Listening to ABC's Radio National Breakfast program when driving to work the other day, I had the dubious honour of listening to the leader of the most powerful nation on earth blunder his way through the post-Azores meeting press conference. This man is so inarticulate it's scary. "The United Nations might yet begin to get its legs -- legs of responsibility -- back" said Dubya. 'Legs of responsibility'?! This is a new one on me. But this is pretty mild compared to some of his other utterances. See, for example, the 'Bushisms' documented at Funjunkie!, or better still Dubyaspeak.com.
'God bless the Civil Service, The nation's saving grace, While we expect democracy, They're laughing in our face'
crooned Billy Bragg in reference to the British civil service going public on matters of conscience.
The Clive Ponting and Sarah Tisdall cases stick in my mind, Tisdall actually serving 3 months of a 6-month gaol sentence after being prosecuted under the Official Secrets Act. I had cause to reflect on these incidents after the brave stance taken by intelligence analyst Andrew Wilkie this week. The Howard Government has been quick to downplay the significance of Wilkie's role within the Office of National Assessments (ONA) but then you wouldn't expect them to do anything else. After the sorry attempt by John Howard at the weekend to conflate Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction and international terrorism to justify war, causing offence to families of the Bali bombing victims, I'd like to know where Howard is getting his intelligence advice from if he isn't getting it from the likes of Wilkie. Regionally, there is no support for Australia's stance and there have to be question marks over Australia's long-term security as a consequence. If he continues down this path, then John Howard will most certainly secure his place in history, but for all the wrong reasons.
Back in 1977-78, Aston Villa lost twice in the same season to local rivals Birmingham City. Had Villa won these two games instead of losing them, the team would have beaten Liverpool to the league title that season.
It still pains me to think about it, but the discomfort is not nearly as great as that experienced around 7.45am EST this morning when Birmingham repeated their feat of 25 years ago. Villa's 2-0 home defeat was made all the worse by the fact they had two players sent off. As a political refugee from Thatcherite Britain, it's a long time since I actually attended a derby game (1983, I think) but the passion and intensity of the occasion has not diminished one iota, albeit from the vantage point of my living room via Foxtel. It's my cultural heritage, I suppose, and I don't think it in the least bit strange that my two soccer-mad daughters feel just as crap as I do today despite the fact they have never been to see a Villa game in their lives. Going the Villa Park is the only thing I miss about living in Brisbane, but being 12,000 miles away does have its advantages on days like today. My heart goes out to all those Birmingham-based Villa fans who will have to endure the taunts of the blue side of town this week and for several months to come.
The Economist published an article last week entitled Bubbling up that presents a pretty gloomy outlook for the world economy.
The price of oil, at just under US$40 a barrel, is now almost double what it was a year ago. The uncertainty surrounding George Dubya's war with Iraq is a factor, but as The Economist points out, three other factors also come into in play: (i) the coldest winter in the northern hemisphere for yonks causing demand for oil to rise quite sharply; (ii) supply constraints outside of the Middle East (a lengthy strike in Venezuela has just concluded), and (iii) - wait for it - the big drop in US oil stocks - now at their lowest level for years. Now repeat after me ... "the Iraq conflict is not about oil".