Ruminations

Krugman on 'An Inconvenient Truth'

Image source: www.lessig.org

In the New York Times today, there is an excellent op-ed piece from Paul Krugman (password required) on the Al Gore movie that is currently making a lot of people shift uncomfortably in their seats of corporate power in the US (particularly those with links to the fossil fuel industries). The speculation continues as to whether this film will be sufficient to resurrect Gore as a presidential candidate. I hope for all our sakes that it does. (The Krugman article is reproduced in full below.)

May 26, 2006
OP-ED COLUMNIST
A Test of Our Character
By PAUL KRUGMAN

In his new movie, "An Inconvenient Truth," Al Gore suggests that there are three reasons it's hard to get
action on global warming. The first is boiled-frog syndrome: because the effects of greenhouse gases build
up gradually, at any given moment it's easier to do nothing. The second is the perception, nurtured by a
careful disinformation campaign, that there's still a lot of uncertainty about whether man-made global
warming is a serious problem. The third is the belief, again fostered by disinformation, that trying to curb
global warming would have devastating economic effects.

I'd add a fourth reason, which I'll talk about in a minute. But first, let's notice that Mr. Gore couldn't have
asked for a better illustration of disinformation campaigns than the reaction of energy-industry lobbyists
and right-wing media organizations to his film.

The cover story in the current issue of National Review is titled "Scare of the Century." As evidence that
global warming isn't really happening, it offers the fact that some Antarctic ice sheets are getting thicker
— a point also emphasized in a TV ad by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, which is partly financed by
large oil companies, whose interests it reliably represents.

Curt Davis, a scientist whose work is cited both by the institute and by National Review, has already
protested. "These television ads," he declared in a press release, "are a deliberate effort to confuse and
mislead the public about the global warming debate." He points out that an initial increase in the
thickness of Antarctica's interior ice sheets is a predicted consequence of a warming planet, so that his
results actually support global warming rather than refuting it.

Even as the usual suspects describe well-founded concerns about global warming as hysteria, they issue
hysterical warnings about the economic consequences of environmentalism. "Al Gore's global warming
movie: could it destroy the economy?" Fox News asked.

Well, no, it couldn't. There's some dispute among economists over how forcefully we should act to curb
greenhouse gases, but there's broad consensus that even a very strong program to reduce emissions would
have only modest effects on economic growth. At worst, G.D.P. growth might be, say, one-tenth or twotenths
of a percentage point lower over the next 20 years. And while some industries would lose jobs,
others would gain.

Actually, the right's panicky response to Mr. Gore's film is probably a good thing, because it reveals for all
to see the dishonesty and fear-mongering on which the opposition to doing something about climate
change rests.

But "An Inconvenient Truth" isn't just about global warming, of course. It's also about Mr. Gore. And it is,
implicitly, a cautionary tale about what's been wrong with our politics.

Why, after all, was Mr. Gore's popular-vote margin in the 2000 election narrow enough that he could be
denied the White House? Any account that neglects the determination of some journalists to make him a
figure of ridicule misses a key part of the story. Why were those journalists so determined to jeer Mr.
Gore? Because of the very qualities that allowed him to realize the importance of global warming, many
years before any other major political figure: his earnestness, and his genuine interest in facts, numbers
and serious analysis.

And so the 2000 campaign ended up being about the candidates' clothing, their mannerisms, anything but
the issues, on which Mr. Gore had a clear advantage (and about which his opponent was clearly both ill
informed and dishonest).

I won't join the sudden surge of speculation about whether "An Inconvenient Truth" will make Mr. Gore a
presidential contender. But the film does make a powerful case that Mr. Gore is the sort of person who
ought to be running the country.

Since 2000, we've seen what happens when people who aren't interested in the facts, who believe what
they want to believe, sit in the White House. Osama bin Laden is still at large, Iraq is a mess, New Orleans
is a wreck. And, of course, we've done nothing about global warming.

But can the sort of person who would act on global warming get elected? Are we — by which I mean both
the public and the press — ready for political leaders who don't pander, who are willing to talk about
complicated issues and call for responsible policies? That's a test of national character. I wonder whether
we'll pass.

Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company

Social and environmental vandalism

Image source: BBC news

Broadcast on live television, the wall for Three Gorges Dam was completed the other day to much flag waving. This concrete monstrosity will go down in history as one the biggest acts of ecological terrorism ever perpetrated. The goons masquerading as economic advisors to the Chinese government will no doubt receive accolades for this 'masterstroke' which will ease the problems China has in generating enough power to meet the needs of its burgeoning economic growth. Apart from the fact it is way over budget (some estimates place total cost at USD100 billion) ... if only this money had gone into solar, wind or geothermal energy ... the social impact is of obscene proportions (1 million people relocated) and the ongoing, irreversible environmental consequences incalculable.

The shame of the international community

Image source: www.idea.int

The images on BBC News this last week of the Karen people fleeing from Burmese government troops left me feeling sick in the pit of my stomach. On a slightly brighter note, the meeting between UN Envoy, Ibrahim Gambari, the Under Secretary General for Political Affairs and Aung San Suu Kyi yesterday presents us with some faint optimism that something will be done soon. Ibrahim is the first foreigner to be allowed to visit Suu Kyi since 2004. As The Independent reports today, the generals who crushed Suu Kyi's democracy movement will decide later this week whether to extend her house arrest beyond its present term, which expires on Saturday. It will be on this day, 16 years ago, that she won an overwhelming election victory. The Burmese military junta have refused to recognise this and instead Suu Kyi has spent 10 of the past 17 years imprisoned. I wonder if that great freedom fighter and defender of liberty, George Dubya, even knows where Burma is on the map? If you are not confident that he and his 'coalition of the willing' buddies are, please consider joining The Global Campaign to Free Aung San Suu Kyi.

CO2 we love you

Image source: www.realclimate.org

When it come to the outsourcing of the soul, hot on the heels of lawyers and tabloid journalists are PR executives. I'm generalising, of course, as I'm sure PR companies can count some really nice people among their ranks ... in fact, I work with some, hence the inclusion of this caveat ... :-) However, the RealClimate blog explains why I am making this assertion with a classic illustration of the extent some people will go to in order to make a buck. I just hope that the people who made these two video clips will reflect on their work in later years as representing one of the low points of their careers. One just beggars belief, the other gives the appearance of being objective, but misuses the journal articles it uses (see the comments in the RealClimate blog). The sponsor of these ads (which go air in 14 US cities between 18-28 May) is the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and what a fine, upstanding community organisation it is too!

Energy alternatives

Image source: www.deseretnews.com

According to Amory Lovins, who appears on BBCWorld's HardTalk this week, nuclear power has "died of an incurable attack of market forces". Finally a voice of reason among the increasing number of 'born-again greens' who think nuclear power is the escape route from global warming. Quite aside from the dangers associated with nuclear power (especially in the wrong hands), it simply doesn't make economic sense. The only reason is still exists today is that governments subsidise it to such a large extent. Then there is the question of the amount of greenhouse gas that is produced in the mining and milling of uranium, the construction and decommissioning of nuclear power stations, and the transportation and management of waste. So, nice one Ames! The programme (23 minutes) is well worth watching and Lovins is in scintillating form as usual. You just need RealPlayer on your machine.

The opportunity cost of the Iraq War

Image source: www.worldpress.org

Quite aside from the appalling human cost of the war in Iraq, according to a recent article, It's only $300 billion, in the Washington Post, the economic cost will soon exceed the predicted cost of the Kyoto Protocol to the US economy. The irony is that this is what Dubya said at the G8 Meeting in March 2001: "I made it clear to our friends and allies that the methodology of the current protocol is one that, if implemented, would severely affect economic growth in America."

So it's not just blood for oil ... it's climate too.

An Inconvenient Truth

Image source: www.charmaineyoest.com
Ever wonder how things would have been if Al Gore hadn't been robbed of the US presidency by Dubya and his cronies? The upcoming doco drama, An Inconvenient Truth, starring the aforementioned suggests that environmentally, at least, we'd be in safer hands. Watch the trailer and book your seats when it hits the cinemas later this month. The last time Hollywood weighed in to the debate with The Day After Tomorrow, it made a few people think, but disaster movies are ten a penny. This one might serve penetrate the consciousness of the environmentally-challenged because it's real stuff rather than make-believe. Given the latest dire prediction from the IPCC this won't happen a moment too soon.